The Complications of Pakistan Politics (By Talha Mujaddidi)
At the political level, Pakistan is a complicated but there is no question about its strength and future, contrary to frequent Western media reports that attempt to portray the country as a failing state.
In his recent article, Are Pakistan’s Strategic Nuclear Assets Threatened by Terrorists, Shahid Siddiqi wrote for Axis of Logic:
"Despite bad governance during 62 years of its life, the viability of this nation of 170 million has never been in doubt, even under the worst of circumstances. On the contrary it shows promise. It has a strong agricultural base and is self sufficient in food. It has an aggressive entrepreneurial class, a vibrant industry and efficient workforce. Its roller coaster economic performance notwithstanding, its growth rate until recently stood at an impressive 7.5%, behind China and India, when the world economy was in doldrums. Pakistanis are fiercely nationalistic and loyal to their country and have always rallied behind their nuclear-armed million strong defence forces in times of crisis, which are counted among the best in the world. If these factors do not make a nation viable, what does? There has never been nor is there today any danger of Pakistan’s collapse or of the country falling to the terrorists."
Zardari is now under threat by the skeletons of corruption in his closet. Just as Uribe has become a liability to the U.S. in Colombia due to his dirty history, Zardari is will eventually lose his usefulness to the U.S. in Pakistan. His money laundering cases will now have to be re-opened after Pakistani Supreme Court has started to flex some muscles on key judicial procedures. This includes the National Accountability Bureau opening up Zardari’s corruption cases. This government which was setup so eloquently by US and UK is now heading for the gutter. Zardari will likely either have to resign and will probably be forced follow Musharraf into exile. This could mean more political chaos or mid-term elections, none of which is what people of Pakistan really want.
Zardari he is unable to control things the way he intended. On Febuary 22, the Pakistan Army Spokesmen declared that the Pakistan Army does not need government permission to grant extensions to its serving generals. Gen. Kayani has already extended the service of two senior generals to an additional year beyond their scheduled retirements. It is likely that Gen. Pasha, the head of ISI will get a one year extension. Gen. Kayani’s term of service, will be extended at least one year beyond his scheduled retirement in October.
The US is obviously unconcerned about the people of Pakistan or even the structure of politics in Pakistan. The US is realizing that political setup in Pakistan is too complex and difficult to manage and that Pakistan is no Yugoslavia. Hence, once again the entire US administration is dealing with Pakistan Army Headquarter (GHQ), just like they have for the most of history.
No End in Sight for the Indo-Pakistan Conflict
The relations between India and Pakistan are likely to worsen in the near future. The root cause of this is the Kashmir conflict but this fire is now being fueled by water. Water will be the root of conflict between India and Pakistan in near future. India has built dams on the Indus River flowing from Kashmir which is a violation of Indus River water treaty of 1962 between Pakistan and India. This is something that the US has also realized but it is unable to twist India’s arm into solving water and Kashmir issues with Pakistan. The recently concluded dialogue between India and Pakistan brought about absolutely no result whatsoever. India is simply not willing to even discuss the core thorny issues between itself and Pakistan. This posture is consistent with their confrontational policies toward all their neighbors – pages taken out of the CIA handbook – accepting nothing less than full regional dominance.
Any acute conflict between India and Pakistan will result in complete chaos for U.S./NATO troops in Afghanistan. In addition, a sudden ignition could be disastrous for both, Pakistan and India. These risks are rooted in the open hostility and hatred towards Pakistan by the Indian government which of course overflows into the attitudes of the populace. India’s penchant for conflict and dominance can be seen in its conflicts with every country in South Asia, from Pakistan to Sri Lanka to Nepal to the island of Maldives.
The US grand-strategic agenda lies sandwiched between Pakistan and India. India’s desire to gain control of Pakistan will also be compromised by the new Naxalite insurgency in India’s eastern states. This insurgency has exploded, requiring India to move at least 30,000 troops from Kashmir into the eastern states. Meanwhile, Pakistan will continue to provide covert support to various commanders inside Afghanistan in an effort to forstall Indian hegemony. The US must find a compromise in Afghanistan in search of an escape route. Mullah Omer does not want to talk to US or NATO at all. Some of his commanders (moderate Taliban) wanted to talk to the US but sadly for them and the U.S., they are now in Pakistan Army custody.
