India – Threat Number One (By Talha Mujaddidi)
Pakistan army Chief Gen. Kayani has made key changes to the national security policy of Pakistan. After the NATO summit, Gen. Kayani has made it clear to the US and its allies, that for the Pakistan army, India remains threat number one. This is after Indian Army Chief, Deepak Kapoor came out with a series of statements regarding Pakistan and even China. The first was his statement was that a nuclear war between India and Pakistan is possible. Then came another stunning and quietly laughable statement that, ‘India can simultaneously fight war with Pakistan and China’, (General Kapoor’s statements were made at a closed-door seminar at the Army Training Command, Shimla, India where he underlined the need to bolster India’s capability to wage a two-front war (against Pakistan and China).
Then came the Deepak Kapoor’s announcement of a “Cold Start Strategy” against Pakistan.
These positions taken by the Kapoor verified the worst suspicions of Pakistan military commanders - that India still views Pakistan as its foremost enemy and as it rides the US war machine for control of Afghanistan. Gen. Kayani has made it absolutely clear to the US that India considers Pakistan its number one enemy and therefore, the Pakistan military takes threats from Indian Army Chief very seriously. This is all in the backdrop of India occupying Kashmir since 1947, and more recently stopping Pakistan’s water supply which has led to water shortages in Pakistan, which is heavily dependent on its agriculture-based economy. Therefore, Pakistan will not tolerate India making further inroads into Afghanistan, thus ramping up the threat to our country. Recently, Gen. Kayani talked to Pakistani and foreign media for the first time in detail. Some excerpts from the conversation are worth pondering. ("Pindi Manifesto", Outlook magazine, by Mariana Babar)
“Kayani proudly talked about the successful army operations in Swat, Malakand and South Waziristan. The myth had been broken, he said, that no army could take control of South Waziristan and hold it. Heliborne operations at 8,000 feet in South Waziristan were the largest ever in South Asia, he declared, and for which the US didn’t pay a cent”.
When the conversation turned to India, Gen Kayani’s addressed strategic issues. The following conclusions can easily be drawn from his words:
Pakistan won’t countenance a significant role for India in Afghanistan;
New Delhi’s recent military pronouncements worry Islamabad immensely;
The gains from backchannel diplomacy, launched during Pervez Musharraf’s 2 rule, need not necessarily be the starting point for Islamabad now; and Kashmir remains Pakistan’s principal focus.
Gen. Musharraf’s U-turn on Pakistan’s Kashmir policy was deeply resented by people of Pakistan. Gen. Kayani is now steering the Kashmir policy back to the pre-Musharraf track. The Pakistan Army has told the government that back channel diplomacy between India and Pakistan amounts to nothing more than pages of history when Gen. Musharraf gave elaborate concessions to Indians.
Kayani’s Response to India’s “Cold Start Doctrine”
Gen. Kayani intoned emphatically, “Yes, we are India-centric.” He then went on to spell out his reasons, taking quite seriously Indian army chief Deepak Kapoor’s cold start doctrine articulated in December 2009. General Kayani said,
“We have unresolved issues, a history of conflict and now the cold start doctrine. Help us resolve these issues so that we can shift our attention from the eastern borders to the west. Let us normalize these burning issues. We want peaceful coexistence with India. After all, India has the capability, and good intentions can change overnight.”
General Kayani also opposed the idea of India training the Afghan National Army.
“Strategically, we cannot have an Afghan army on my western border which has an Indian mindset. If we have an army trained by Pakistan, there will be better interactions on the western border.
“Our objective is that at the end of all this (Afghanistan), we should not be standing in the wrong corner of the room and should remain relevant in the region. This is our greatest challenge.”
Thinking beyond the US/NATO Occupation
Gen. Kayani’s recent stance has gained popular support from people of Pakistan; this also highlights the importance of the Pakistan Military high command’s observation of situation in Afghanistan. The Pakistan Military is now thinking of life in Afghanistan beyond the US/NATO occupation. Pakistan army does not want to have Indian Army floating around inside Afghanistan. Pakistan will also not want to damage its ties with Afghan Taliban.
