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It presents a western investor's opinion about economy of Pak (in 2007). Please do not come up with childish rhetorics such as "so and so looted the country", without backing it up with sound economic points.
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Economy of Pakistan in 2007 (An investor's opinion)
(35 posts)-
LiberalKarachi
MemberPosted 1 year ago on 15 Mar 2010 2:20 # -
RajputPuttar
MemberLiberalKarachi
I believe what u saying but can u ask few questions of mine.
a) Whats the annual exports growth rate from 1999-2007/8?
b) What was GDP growth rate ?
c) What was major industries growth rate ? (barring automobile)d) Was there any major infrastructure project undertaken ?
e) Was the increase in Forex reserves was resulte of increased forex remittances after 9/11 and accelerated privitization or it was as result of increased productivity ?
f) What was agricultural growth druing this period ?
Gentleman ,
U can find number of analysts which will condemn the policies of that era. But , lets judge the era on solid figures.
Posted 1 year ago on 15 Mar 2010 11:56 # -
LiberalKarachi
Membera) Whats the annual exports growth rate from 1999-2007/8?
Based on the Board of Investment:
FY2001-2002: $9.13bn
FY02-03: $11.16bn
FY03-04: $12.31bn
FY04-05: $14.39bn
FY05-06: $16.47bn
FY06-07: $17.01bn
FY2007-2008: $19.22bnA steady growth in Exports throughout.
b) What was GDP growth rate ?
2001-02: 3.60%
02-03: 5.10%
03-04: 6.40%
04-05: 8.40%
05-06: 6.60%
06-07: 7.00%In 1999, Pakistan's GDP was $75bn, in 2007 it was $160bn. Similarly, the GDP per capita in 1999 was $450 and in 2007 it was $926. Hence, over 100% growth in GDP.
c) What was major industries growth rate ? (barring automobile)
I think most industries experienced growth. If we look at cement industry (which is a nice proxy to economical growth): In 1997, our per capita consumption was 73kg in Pakistan and India. By the end of 2006, consumption in India rose to become 115 kg/capita whereas ours rose to 117 kg/capita. India is a BRIC country of course and has a very rapid growth.
Similar points can be made about Telecom, Textile, IT, Financial Services, Defence and so on.
d) Was there any major infrastructure project undertaken ?
There are too many to even enumerate. I can just talk about my city alone for hours, the amount of infrastructure development that has taken place in Karachi in the past 10 years is more than collective development in the past 50 years. To name a good example, a lot of work has been done on Karachi's ports, deepening and enlarging of the ports - deep-sea container terminal project costing $1.2bn to name one. Let us also not forget about Gawadar and connecting of Karachi to Gawader. We all know about the signal-free corridors by MK, which has helped attract more investment into Pakistan's economical and financial hub.
e) Was the increase in Forex reserves was resulte of increased forex remittances after 9/11 and accelerated privitization or it was as result of increased productivity ?
A combination i think, it'd be unfair to simply place the growth on remittance or vice versa. The remittance in 2008 was $6.451bn (which is a good thing!). As for privatization, if we look at FDI via privatization it was $133.2 million in 07-08. I don't think it can be denied that the reserves genuinely increased, the capital markets were very liquid, credit reasonably abundant, economy on the rise, currency stable, business-friendly country...investors were eager in Pakistan's economy! Therefore we saw rupee very stable against the dollar in that era. Incidentally, did you know that remittances this year increased to $7.811bn even though reserves are relatively down?
f) What was agricultural growth druing this period ?
I personally believe in much more diversity in our economy. Though agriculture continued to grow at a similar rate as before, averaging just a little over 4.6% between FY04-08, the percentage to GDP decreased to around 20% of the GDP from a much higher value, which i think is a good thing.
Posted 1 year ago on 15 Mar 2010 23:38 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
@LiberalKarachi: This is fiction. This is small scale development work.
FDI decreased. If local investors took their money out of Pakistan, to invest in Dubai or other places, how or why do you think FDI would come into Pakistan ?
This continues to-date.
According to a news in DAWN, 94% of ALL profits made in 2009 were in Banking sector. That is not economic activity. Its just a 'hair-phair' (in urdu) of calculations in books;
--------------------------------------------------------
DAWN News: Five banks pocket 94pc of entire 2009 profitsMonday, 08 Mar, 2010
--------------------------------------------------------Overall, most of Pakistan's investors, Pakistan's own money left Pakistan in this last decade. What to talk about foreign investment in such a scenario ?
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 4:34 # -
It is history, a system which is aganist the system of Allah can't survive, So soon u will see the dead end of this system, but remember Allah will bring a new nation upon us who is greater in faith to Allah
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 4:43 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
The guy in this interview, he sounds more like a lobbyist than an investor to me. That means he gets paid by Pakistanis' to do appraisal campaigns for Pakistan, rather than bringing money to invest in Pakistan. Which means more money is going out of Pakistan.
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 4:46 # -
sasherwani
Members@ Haris,
Another irrelevant, over-emotional and weightless post by you. When discussing the economies of 2007, why are you using 2009 as an example? Please provide valid references if you think the FDIs decreased between 2000-2007?
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 4:59 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
We have already discussed economic activity of this last decade under another thread, where Salam gave more than enough arguments, to make you realize the reality. Most of the business or profits that came about in this last decade were in Banking sector alone.
That is not productivity. That is not 'indigenous products development' or brand development in Pakistan. Its not something that can be exported. Its sham!.
It doesn't mean Pakistan has an economy or Pakistan's dead economy was revived. It means, Pakistani people were swindled yet again.
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 5:08 # -
sasherwani
Members@ Haris,
It doesn't matter what was discussed in another thread. Its not anyone's job to keep a track of all the threads on this forum. Plus this is a discussion forum not an encyclopedia or a chamber of commerce where I would look for valid references/ statistics. I am yet to see a valid reference that states that FDIs decreased during 2000-2007.
Please dont present your opinions as facts. Thats a general trait of Pakistani politicians!
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 5:26 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
When I tell you;
(1) Pakistani investors took their money out of Pakistan and ran away from Pakistan with their money
How or why do you expect Foreign investors to come into Pakistan, when local investor himself is running away from this country ? Don't you have common sense ?
(2) Pakistan has mafias', monopolies
(3) CCP has failed! in quelling mafias', in encouraging competition
I posted a thread on this. That thread seems to be another one that Admin of this site hid from the people. I can find the thread with the wrong link in my searches on this discuss forum.
does that not show you what kind of economic activity Pakistan has ?
I found a graph on DAWN News. Take a look at this;
--------------------------------------------------------
DAWN News: Pakistan eyes five billion dollars in foreign investmentSunday, 28 Feb, 2010
--------------------------------------------------------This is AFP (a foreign company) giving DAWN the scoop on what foreign investment activity went on in Pakistan. Which means DAWN being a local newspaper can't even get these details from Govt. of Pakistan on its own.
Even the figures in this chart on DAWN News article page can't be confirmed. So the most we can do is speculate about economic activity in Pakistan.
--------------------------------------------------------
Do you ever hear news about Pakistani investors loosing ALL their money in Dubai, with the fall of Dubai, in Pakistani mass media ?
--------------------------------------------------------
News like this is common place now;
Bloomberg: Pakistan’s Foreign Direct Investment Declines 57% in Two Months
--------------------------------------------------------
Why is this happening ? Its all happening because Mr. Musharraf's policies are being continued. Because this democratic Govt. is telling USA, we are your servants, even more! loyal to you, than Mr. Musharraf.
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 5:32 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
Common man of Pakistan needs for Govt. of Pakistan to provide;
(1) justice
(2) easy access to justice
(3) basic necessities of life
(4) excellent! governance
(5) quality education at cheap rates
(6) cheap electricity, so Pakistanis' can build products, develop brands locally, so they can be exported at competitive rates
(7) transparent Zakaat system, taxation systemThis is an ever increasing list of things which common man needs from Govt. of Pakistan.
When a country doesn't have;
(1) Justice System
(2) A System
(3) cheap electricity
(4) ensurity of basic necessities of life to common man
(5) transparent Zakaat system, taxation system
(6) political stability
(7) stability in Govt. policies
(8) curbing of mafias'when foreign investors have to pay more in bribes than for doing business in Pakistan, how or why do you expect foreign investor to invest in such a country ?
Don't you see;
(a) traders of Punjab protesting against current Govt. of Pakistan, in recent past ?
(b) Pakistan's air services are crashing ?
(c) Pakistan's railway system has nearly gone bankrupt ?
(d) Pakistan State Oil has nearly gone bankrupt
(e) WAPDA/PEPCO is unable to provide electricity to people of Pakistan because of circular debt (which means there'll be less electricity for higher rates?)
(f) Pakistan's inter-city telecom traffic chokes at night, which means loss of revenue for PTCL in local traffic ?Pakistan Govt. can't even give you a telecom infrastructure to accommodate its citizen's needs ? which btw also means exponentially growing revenue for PTCL (a state owned company) ?
Doesn't common sense give you a nudge to wake you people up to reality ?
Are ALL you people really that dumb ?
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 6:01 # -
sasherwani
Members@ Haris,
I wouldnt be where I am if I were dumb :)
Your cry for Khilafat (that you term as justice) is the response to all your threads. I dont like to generalize, but most ppl would agree that your posts are spams - since they rarely correspond or relate to the topic in discussion and oftenly refract to your pseudo-intellectual-khilafat-movement.
Your current two posts were as irrelevant as most of your other posts. The topic in discussion is "Economy in Pakistan in 2007". So providing facts from 2000 TILL 2007 would make sense since they will represent the dictatorship era of Musharraf.
Now look at your references:
DAWN News: Five banks pocket 94pc of entire 2009 profits
Monday, 08 Mar, 2010DAWN News: Pakistan eyes five billion dollars in foreign investment
Sunday, 28 Feb, 2010Bloomberg: Pakistan’s Foreign Direct Investment Declines 57% in Two Months
2010Pakistan State Oil has nearly gone bankrupt
2010All facts and figures from 2010 which is 36 months post 2007! Your posts are nothing more than spam and your series of irrelevant posts proves it conclusively.
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 6:31 # -
@Sherwani
Haris is not crying for Khilafat he wants to tell u that the social, economical and political system of Islam is only the cure, But ur democratic developed mind thinks that he is crying for Khilafat,
Every democratic based mind will soon see the end as the world is suffering with finanical system.
New villagers are not welcome in the ghost town
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 6:38 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
DAWN News: Pakistan eyes five billion dollars in foreign investment
Sunday, 28 Feb, 2010
-------------------------------------------------------------------The above news contains a chart which shows the amount of foreign investment coming to Pakistan between 2001 - 2010.
How is that irrelevant ?
@sasherwani: You'r dumb. You know why ? Because you waste time in squabbling over petty things, rather than look at the big picture.
Well, you can continue doing that. That shows, your only interest is to win arguments.
Who cares ? Does that make Pakistan or its people's lives better ? Ofcourse not.
It only means you tried to show that;
(a) you'r in control
(b) you are the decision maker
(c) my views are not admissible
(d) They should be rejected and only yours should be entertainedKeep trying. You won't succeed, as long as I'm around.
You'r not in control. You are not the decision maker.
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 6:45 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
..and excuse me for saying, the foreign investment that came into Pakistan was politically motivated.
Americans wanted to support a dictator, who had agreed to do their bidding in contrast to interest of the people of this nation.
Even in that chart, a max of $5 billion came to Pakistan as foreign investment in the year 2007. Where-as expatriate Pakistanis' were sending over $7 billion of remittances per year. How well were they treated in the years between 2000-2007 ?
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 6:50 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
@sasherwani: As for Khilafat, I haven't even started giving you a comparison of the current system with Khilafat.
..and you'v already started berating it ?
(sarcasm) AALA! (in urdu) (/sarcasm)
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 7:10 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
I have already put up significant things that are required by common man of Pakistan, in order for him to make his own individual life better, and in turn make Pakistan grow prosperous.
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 7:29 # -
sasherwani
Members@ Haris,
HA! You posted a chart that proved yourself wrong? And you are calling others dumb? Pakistan's FDI's increased throughout 2000s and declined when the so-called democracy took over (In 2008). Zardari's version of democracy is failing we both agree. But we have highly contrasting views on what is the solution to the current political and economic scenario.
As for how well our investments and remittances were being treated, what is your say on it? Because I made quite a bunch from 2004-2006 both in the stock market (new offering) sector and the property sector. Luckily I bailed myself out in 2007 when I suspected the return of democracy!
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 8:03 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
(sarcasm) Another one of those short term gainers, eh ? (/sarcasm)
You thrive in the short term, but die (crash and burn) in the long term. Who wins ? Who looses ?
$me shakes head, *sigh*.
You are the educated of Pakistan. You bear more! responsibility for the current predicament of Pakistan and its people. It is YOUR stupidity that is causing Pakistan to go into deep problems. What to talk of those who are not educated ?
How can you even call yourself better than any other less-educated citizen of Pakistan, when you act the same, you choose the easy way, you choose to not to do the hard work ?
$me shakes head, *sigh*.
I am not a fool like you. I choose the hard path. I choose to do the hard work. I choose the long term over the short term.
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 8:21 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
@sasherwani: I invite you to do the same. I invite you to struggle for betterment. To lookout for the long term. To do the hard work. To let go of easy way of going about matters.
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 9:18 # -
sasherwani
Members@ Haris,
You getting personal doesnt bother me. I have seen many 'internet kay cheetay' and they dont quite get my attention.
What exactly is your defination of 'struggle for betterment' and what exactly is that I need to 'work hard on'?
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 9:48 # -
ajamal
MemberIf I may jump in the discussion, to progress Pakistan needs the basic ingridients of a successful country i.e. a justice system, good governance, a sound political system (all other systems such as economic, fiscal, business etc follow the political system).
The point we need to agree on is whether the current political leadership (whether in power at center or their friendly opposition) is capable of delivering this?
My answer is NO. They people are not capable (I don’t know about their sincerity – but sincerity alone is not enough).
To support my answer, I would only refer to the index of poverty, prices (inflation) and crimes in the last two years of this democratic government showing exponential increases.Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 10:08 # -
sasherwani
Members@ Ajmal,
I second your opinion. Pakistan needs good leadership. The last two years of Zardari's version of democracy hasn't brought anything good to Pakistan.
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 10:52 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
Who do you people think can;
(1) govern ?
(2) act ?
(3) deliver ?Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 11:12 # -
sasherwani
Members@ Haris,
It all depends on your defination of 'deliver'! My defination of deliver is a cleaner environment, efficient infrastructure, religious freedom, peaceful neighborhoods, economic stability, Good and affordable education, ample employment opportunities, freedom of the press and honest lawmakers/enforcers.
We are a million light years from such a scenario. But we need to atleast get on the right path. In my view there is only one right way and that is the selection of GOOD leaders! I have always believed that good leadership can really change fate of a nation, a society, a household, an academic institution or even a cricket team. History has numerous examples that prove my observation.
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 12:09 # -
ajhons
Membersasherwani.Fully agreewith you.Only thing I want to add is we also need Good Leaders with new politicle parties.Currently all the parties,politcle or religious, they are lost.They are heading nowwhere.
This is my personal view point
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 12:16 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
@sasherwani: Dude, I hardly ever see you pushing for pre-poll razor sharp accountability. In-fact I hardly ever see you pushing for razor sharp accountability.
How do you ever expect good leadership ?
Isn't this blatant hypocrisy ?
@ajhons: Janab, they are heading no where because;
(1) the court of law is not doing its job
(2) there's no rule of law
(3) election commission is not doing its jobWhy blame someone else for their crimes ?
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 12:20 # -
ajhons
MemberWhy do u mean by "someone else."
Everyone wants his version of justice.That's why court of law is not doing its Job.
Once in my college PSF anf Jamiat had a clash.Police arrested some boys from both parties.Second or third all of these were out of police station.No patry said to their workers that you posses illegela arms, we will not bailed you out.What rule of Law and cout of law be doing in this scenario.
Noone even on this do justice with his own opinion.
No one said MQM is bad but yes Mustafa Kamal has done some really good work, or JI is not good but yes Sirajul Haq or Qazi hussain are really good human beings with high morals values,PTI is no good but IK has some excellant leadership qaulities.PML(N) is bad but Shahbaz shareef is doing wonderful job.
YWhen you can't do justice with the opinion how come you cpmplain about "no rule of Law"Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 12:32 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
@ajhons: I'm blaming;
(1) court of law
(2) Election Commissionfor not investigating each person who stands up to represent people of Pakistan thoroughly before allowing them to take part in politics, be it at any level.
What is wrong in that ?
Bhaee jaan, how do you claim, its my version of justice ?
When did I ever claim that which you say here. I quote;
--------------------------------------------------------
No one said MQM is bad but yes Mustafa Kamal has done some really good work, or JI is not good but yes Sirajul Haq or Qazi hussain are really good human beings with high morals values,PTI is no good but IK has some excellant leadership qaulities.PML(N) is bad but Shahbaz shareef is doing wonderful job.
YWhen you can't do justice with the opinion how come you cpmplain about "no rule of Law"
--------------------------------------------------------?
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 12:38 # -
Salam
memberpakistan is currently a super power but the driver who is suppose to utilize the potential of resources is missing
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 12:41 # -
Assalam-o-Alaikum-Warahmat-ULLAH ALL,
@Salam: Exactly!. The super power which can lead ALL! of Muslim UMMAH, MASHALLAH.
Mera sawal ye hai, ke jab kaam ke leaders ke khilaf har koee propaganda kar raha ho, to phir kis baat ki complaint karte hain Pakistani loag, bhaee jaan ?
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 12:58 # -
sasherwani
Members@ Haris,
You think you know too much about everything..even about me :) That, however, is quite opposite to the real scenario.
Your 'kaam kay leaders' from JI are just as corrupt as the famous political parties of Pakistan (PPP, PMLN, MQM etc). The only difference is, JIs flaws are more obvious so they rarely get any support in Pakistan. Now that JI is openly supporting terrorism and talibans (synonyms in my view), their support is going to go further downhill.
I do suggest you to keep supporting them however. Everyone needs an activity in their life to keep themselves occupied. This might very well be yours.
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 17:21 # -
ajamal
MemberSherwani:
You are unjustly accusing JI leaders of corruption. Can you show us their corruption (hoards of money, propoperties, businesses)? In fact, entire leadership of JI is paid by the party for doing their jobs (politics and leadership is a full time job), and they can only maintain a modest lifestyle with such money.
Also blaming JI of supporting terrorism is totally wrong. JI supports talking to our people and listening to them. Terrorism in Pakistan is not happening in a vaccum - it is the result of actions which must be stopped.Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 18:40 # -
skunk
MemberThe problem is that global and especially US economy were growing at the same rate between 1999-2007. The financial crisis started in late 2007 but an American would not give the credit to Bush for steady growth because they very well know that it was precisely his short sightedness that caused the havoc in the first place.
Also, while the rest of Asia's economy was export driven Pakistan brought in money by privatization. The investment was almost entirely because of privatization not industrial growth. Hence, the current crisis.
@ ajhons: you can have your new party in power at the end of five years, just go though the Constitutional process and get elected.
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 18:48 # -
LiberalKarachi
Member@hariskhan,
"FDI decreased. If local investors took their money out of Pakistan, to invest in Dubai or other places, how or why do you think FDI would come into Pakistan ?"
Where did you get that FDI decreased?
Foreign investment inflows in 2001-02: 485
2002-03: 798
2003-04: 949
2004-05: 1,524.00
2005-06: 3,521.00
206-07: 5,139.60
2007-08: 5,152.80The Greenfield Investment in 2005-06 had jumped from 1,981
to 4,873.20 in 2006-07. So there is no hera-pehri. If you are talking about flight of capital due to sub-prime mortgages crisis then it was in late 2008 and 2009, and not in 2007. All those numbers are in million $.As a result, our FDI had jumped to $8.4 billion in 2007 from $301 million in 1999.
"@LiberalKarachi: This is fiction. This is small scale development work."
What are you talking about? Do u mean Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) did not see improvements? LSM growth in 1999 was 1.5% and in 2007 it was 8.6%.
"According to a news in DAWN, 94% of ALL profits made in 2009 were in Banking sector. That is not economic activity. Its just a 'hair-phair' (in urdu) of calculations in books;"
Did you even READ the article? It said:
"KARACHI: The big five banks NBP, MCB Bank, HBL, UBL and ABL — bagged over 94 per cent of the total profit of the entire banking industry in 2009.Most of the results (over 90 per cent) of the listed banks for the year 2009 had been announced which showed that the five banks successfully enlarged their profits and got absolute domination in the banking industry."
It was talking about 5 big banks (as opposed to many small banks) dominating 94% of the profit IN banking. It never said that "ALL profits made in 2009 were in Banking sector". That even sounds absolutely ridiculous lol.
Posted 1 year ago on 16 Mar 2010 20:58 #
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